DTN Midday Livestock Comments          07/31 11:54

   Tariff Concerns Have Traders Flustered

   Bids of $235 are currently on the table in the South, but otherwise packer 
interest remains limited.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   Tariff concerns have the cattle complex trading lower into Thursday's noon 
hour, but that's unlikely going to affect this week's fed cash cattle trade as 
feedlot managers are holding out for higher prices. Bids of $235 are currently 
offered in Kansas, but otherwise the market remains quiet. September corn is up 
1 3/4 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is up $1.20. The Dow Jones 
Industrial Average is up 46.44 points and NASDAQ is up 210.54 points.

   Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 8,500 metric tons 
(mt) for 2025 were down 49% from the previous week and 30% from the prior 
4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (1,700 mt), South Korea 
(1,200 mt) and Taiwan (1,000 mt). Pork net sales of 39,500 mt for 2025 were up 
noticeably from the previous week and up 85% from the prior 4-week average. The 
three largest buyers were Mexico (23,100 mt), Japan (8,100 mt) and South Korea 
(3,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

   The live cattle complex has waved its white flag today as traders seem 
uncertain on what to do with the onset of a 50% tariff affecting beef and 
cattle imports from Brazil, which goes into effect in seven days. Cattlemen 
don't mind the fact that Brazilian beef and cattle could face a greater tariff, 
as truthfully, they want their own product to be marketed as opposed to the 
imported products. However, where the tricky part of this matter comes into 
play is in beef prices, and how consumers are going to react. We all know that 
President Trump uses tariffs as a way to get foreign leaders to the table to 
negotiate, but if for whatever reason the Brazilian government doesn't budge, 
domestic consumers could be affected as beef prices would likely trade higher 
because supplies of beef would become even more limited. Needless to say, it's 
a situation that we need to keep a very close eye on. If the U.S. beef cowherd 
wasn't at a 62-year low, the story would be entirely different. Again, most 
cattle producers wouldn't mind the fact that foreign beef was taxed at a higher 
rate than in years past.

   August live cattle are down $3.40 at $229.67, October live cattle are down 
$4.42 at $225.30 and December live cattle are down $3.82 at $226.07. There was 
a small (extremely small) volume of cattle traded in Kansas on Wednesday at 
$235, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average, but no more 
sales have transpired today. Bids of $235 are currently being offered in Kansas 
again, but no more cattle have traded hands. Packer demand should improve at 
any point in time now. Asking prices are firm in the South at $236 plus and in 
the North at $390.

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.45 ($363.44) and select up $1.04 
($341.95) with a movement of 68 loads (33.90 loads of choice, 11.81 loads of 
select, 13.27 loads of trim and 9.47 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   Because of the announcement that a 50% tariff could go into effect on beef 
and cattle imports from Brazil -- the feeder cattle complex is trading lower 
thanks to the morning's announcement. This decision is solely being made 
because of technical uncertainty, not because it reflects what's going on in 
the countryside. August feeders are down $3.62 at $335.32, September feeders 
are down $4.32 at $335.42 and October feeders are down $4.35 at $333.97.

LEAN HOGS:

   The cattle complex may be enduring some pressure, but the lean hog contracts 
have seemed to find some more technical footing in the contracts, which is 
helping the market trade higher. Unfortunately, it's not because of stronger 
pork demand or higher cash sales, but solely because of the added stability in 
the futures complex. August lean hogs are up $0.12 at $107.15, October lean 
hogs are up $0.02 at $89.40 and December lean hogs are up $0.25 at $81.45.

   The projected lean hog index for 7/30/2025 is down $0.14 at $110.37, and the 
actual index for 7/29/2025 is up $0.06 at $110.51. Hog prices are lower on the 
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.48 with a weighted average price of 
$111.82, ranging from $104.00 to $117.50 on 1,485 head and a five-day rolling 
average of $112.68. Pork cutouts total 123.11 loads with 113.90 loads of pork 
cuts and 9.20 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.51, $114.49.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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